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Following a week of net outflows, the spot Bitcoin ETF market has rebounded with impressive net inflows this week, highlighting a growing investor confidence in Bitcoin and its associated financial products. This week’s market activities have shown a remarkable reversal from the previous 5-day net outflow streak, with Tuesday witnessing a substantial net inflow of $480 million, followed by $243.5 million on Wednesday. Yesterday’s resurgence in investor interest was notably boosted by Blackrock’s massive inflow of $323.8 million, effectively offsetting Grayscale GBTC’s $299.8 million outflows. Moreover, Ark Invest’s ARKB reported its best day yet, with $200 million in inflows, despite Fidelity experiencing its worst day with a mere $1.5 million in outflows. Nevertheless, Fidelity managed to bounce back with significant inflows of $261 million and $279 million on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Yesterday's ETF flows were positive for $243.5 million. Blackrock finally woke up again for $323.8 million completely cancelling out $GBTC's $299.8 million outflows. Ark had their best day yet with $200 million. Fidelity had its worst day with $1.5 million. Price dumped on… pic.twitter.com/LLChkITN7q — WhalePanda (@WhalePanda) March 28, 2024 1% Down, 99% To Go For Bitcoin ETFs However, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan, this is just the mere beginning of what is to come in the upcoming months. Hougan’s commentary, part of his weekly memo to investment professionals, sheds light on the current market dynamics and the colossal potential that lies ahead. “1% Down; 99% to Go,” Hougan wrote, highlighting the nascent yet promising journey of Bitcoin ETFs. Related Reading: $9.5 Billion In Bitcoin Options Poised To Expire This Friday: Market Turbulence Ahead? Lately, the market has been characterized by its volatility, with Bitcoin’s price oscillating between $60,000 and $70,000. Hougan advises a calm and long-term perspective amidst this fluctuation, especially as the sector anticipates the upcoming Bitcoin halving around April 20, the approval of Bitcoin ETFs on national account platforms, and the soon-to-come completion of due diligence by various investment committees. Despite the current sideways movement of Bitcoin’s price, Hougan remains bullish about its long-term trajectory. “Bitcoin is in a raging bull market,” he asserts, noting a nearly 300% increase over the past 15 months. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January has marked a significant milestone, opening up the Bitcoin market to investment professionals on an unprecedented scale. Hougan’s analysis points to a profound shift as global wealth managers, who collectively control over $100 trillion, begin to explore investments in the “digital gold.” He suggests that even a conservative allocation of 1% of their portfolios to Bitcoin could result in approximately $1 trillion of inflows into the space. Related Reading: Bitcoin “Liquid Inventory Ratio” Hits All-Time Low, What It Means This perspective is backed by historical data showing that even a 2.5% allocation to Bitcoin has enhanced the risk-adjusted returns of traditional 60/40 portfolios in every three-year period of Bitcoin’s history. The recent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, though impressive, are seen by Hougan as merely the beginning of a much larger movement. “We are all excited about the $12 billion that has flowed into ETFs since January. And it is exciting: Collectively, the most successful ETF launch of all time..But imagine global wealth managers allocate just 1% of their portfolios to bitcoin on average,” Hougan elaborates, emphasizing the scale of potential growth awaiting the cryptocurrency market. He concludes: Think about the implications. […] A 1% allocation across the board would mean ~$1 trillion of inflows into the space. Against this, $12 billion is barely a down payment. 1% down, 99% to go. At press time, BTC traded at $70,644. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin reaching $100,000 remains a highly feasible target, especially given the fact that the price of the cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high above $73,00 ahead of the halving. In preparation of the explosive move that is expected to follow the halving, Bitcoin whales are going all out as they fill up their wallets with BTC. Large Bitcoin Whales Buy More BTC As the Bitcoin price has retraced from its surge, large Bitcoin whales are taking advantage of the dip to buy more coins at cheap prices. These whales, which hold at least 1,000 BTC – which means they have $70 million on the low end, have bought up a large tranche of coins over the last three months. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Predicts XRP Price Will Rally 800% To $6, Here’s When Since January, there has been a steady climb in the number of wallets that hold at least 1,000 as interest continues to grow. A lot of this interest is driven by institutional investors who are putting billions of dollars into Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Now, with the condition that issuers have to hold the BTC they sell to customers, it has seen these institutions buy up a good chunk of the supply. The number of addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC was sitting at less than 1,500 at the beginning of the year. However, by March, with institutions ramping up their buys, this number has climbed to 1,617. This is an 8% increase in the number of these large whales in the last three months. Source: Glassnode To put this increase in perspective, the last time that there were these many whales holding this much BTC was back in 2021 at the peak of the bull market. So, if this number is rising once again, it means that these large investors are expecting the price to rise, and as a result, are trying to maximize their profits. Spot ETF Inflows See 2,600% Spike After a week of consistent outflows, inflows into the Spot Bitcoin ETFs are starting to ramp up once again. For the first day of the week, inflows climbed to $14.5 million, bringing a welcome change from the almost $900 million worth of outflows that was recorded in the prior week. This change in the tide seems to have brought renewed interest for investors as Tuesday saw a whopping 2,600% increase in inflows. In total, there $418 million recorded going into Spot BTC ETFs on Tuesday, one of the highest inflow days since the ETFs were approved. Related Reading: Ripple CEO Responds To SEC’s Shocking $2 Billion Demand This change in direction is also evident in the Bitcoin price, which has recovered from last week’s low of $60,000. The price has since sprung back up above $70,000, with a 10% increase in the last week. This also validates the whales’ moves to acquire more Bitcoin, putting the vast majority of their holdings in profit. Now, as seen in the past, a return of high inflows into the Spot ETFs has always been bullish for the price. So, if the inflows were to continue throughout this week, then the price of Bitcoin could register a brand new all-time high ahead of the halving. BTC bulls push price toward $72,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com Featured image from India Today, chart from Tradingview.com
Rekt Capital, a cryptocurrency expert and enthusiast, has identified a similar pattern between the recent Bitcoin pre-halving retrace and the one that took place in 2020 before the crypto asset witnessed an upsurge to its previous all-time high. Bitcoin Pullback Is Almost Identical With 2020 Pre-Halving Retrace Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency asset, is presently demonstrating momentum, rising over $70,000 and recovering from a recent downward trend. Following the recovery, Rekt Capital believes that the pullback might be over, citing a similarity to the 2020 pre-halving retrace. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Reclaims $70K And Signals Fresh Surge To $75K Given the uncertainty of the crypto market, the analyst is not sure if the recent upsurge marks the end of the pre-halving retrace. However, if that is the case, then Bitcoin would have nearly matched the pre-halving correction from 2020. According to the analyst, the digital asset has recorded a pullback of over 18% in this cycle. Meanwhile, in the 2020 cycle, it retraced by over 19%, suggesting the potential of the asset mirroring the 2020 movement this cycle. A further dive into the correction made by the analyst reveals that Bitcoin has been trapped inside the Weekly range (black-black) ever since it retraced by over 18%. Both the upside-wicking 2021 peak and the candle-bodied 2021 peak combine to create the weekly range that Rekt Capital has indicated. Thus, he claims that BTC reclaiming the $69,200 ‘range high’ as support, which has already played out, could signal the conclusion of the recent decline. In addition, this demonstrates that Bitcoin is poised to move over its weekly range and soar higher. With the 2024 Bitcoin halving drawing closer, the cryptocurrency is having difficulty in reclaiming its most recent peak of $73,000. However, there are rumors that today’s increase could mean the pre-halving decline is coming to an end. Considered Catalysts For BTC’s Strength This Cycle As of the time of writing, BTC has rebounded to around $70,806, indicating a daily increase of over 5%. Its market cap and trading volume are also showing strength, rising by 5.49% and 47.82%, respectively, in the past day. One of the main drivers of Bitcoin’s growth this cycle is thought to have been the approval of spot BTC ETFs in January 2024. With the acceptance of the product, investors now have a convenient way to profit from Bitcoin’s value without actually owning any of it. Related Reading: Bitcoin is “Overheating” For The First Time Ever Before Halving Since then, the crypto asset has witnessed increased adoption from industry leaders and a massive inflow of capital, propelling its price as well. The BTC price has increased from $46,000 to a peak of $73,000 since the ETFs were approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Another catalyst considered to have impacted the coin’s price is the anticipation surrounding the upcoming Bitcoin Halving set to occur in April. In the past, these kinds of events have led to notable price upticks. Due to this, investors will shift their attention to BTC to position themselves for significant gains following the halving event. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com